Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 1 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Good matchup, good value, nice rushing floor.
Here we go, ladies and gentlemen. For my first tip of the season I have to hit the ground running – which is precisely what Cam Newton is going to do on Sunday. He is the healthiest he’s been for a while and in his new home in New England. This week’s visitors are the Miami Dolphins, lead by Ryan ‘DFS’ Fitzpatrick. The matchup favours the Pats, and I think that the once-MVP is going to have a point to prove. Rushing, passing, creating plays… Whatever Newton can do to bring us back SuperCam from yesteryear, I’m here for it. I think the rushing we expect from him (disregarding last year, he has literally never had a season without at least 350 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns, with most seasons closer to 600 and 6+) will give him a good floor and there is upside if he scores. Passing touchdowns should be on the menu against Miami and I would love to see his rushing potential realised again. At $6,100 he is a good option that doesn’t require you to break the bank.
He’s against the Lions, EMBRACE THE MEME.
I really don’t like Mitch Trubisky, ask literally anyone who has ever listened to a single episode of the Daft Kings Podcast. But I am a man of honour, and I want to provide tips without bias. So, here goes.
Mitch Trubisky sucks against 30 teams in the NFL, but dear god he destroys the Lions. Here is the line: Through 5 games, he has a 70% pass completion percentage, 1359 yards (averaging 272), 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. If Mitch can emulate his usual Lions performance, he will put up at least 20 points, and he has a frankly amusing price of $5,400. I don’t know if I’m going to put him any lineups that I have, but this is the one matchup where I actually think you can. It’s week one, let’s have some fun! (Sorry in advance if you start Mitch and he forgets he’s against the Lions). Trubisky’s success against the Lions might literally be what helped Nagy decide who should start Week One. Also, because of how cheap Mitch is, he’s actually perfect for an affordable stack, with either Allen Robinson ($6,500) or Anthony Miller ($5,000).
Incredible matchup, great talent.
Yes, I know, I’m starting with a Raider, but listen…
After a fantastic (should have been offensive rookie of the year) debut season for the Josh Jacobs, it’s time for him to carry his newly relocated franchise to a strong start. The Las Vegas running back will be starting his second campaign with a matchup against one of the best defenses you could ask for in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were absolutely horrendous against the running back last year (31st of 32) and they have actually gotten worse. Luke Kuechly retired and their defense is going to be largely made up of rookies, who have had a watered-down offseason. This could honestly be Josh Jacobs’ best week of the year, and at a very affordable price of $6,800 he is probably my favourite running back on the entire slate who isn’t playing for his opposition – and in terms of value, he’s actually even better.
Gordon gone, time to sustain the elite production.
The front offices in the NFL do not care about fantasy and their moves can sometimes make it seem like they’re actively trying to block us from success, but sometimes they do something that’s just perfect for fantasy. When the LA Chargers allowed Melvin Gordon to become a free agent, and paid Austin Ekeler instead, the fantasy football community rejoiced. This season we get to see Austin Ekeler truly unleashed, with the full workload. In Week 1, he faces the Cincinnati Bengals who should be a good matchup, and I expect his involvement in both the passing and running game to be as massive as we have been asking for since he came into the league. I like his price at $7,000, and I think he is a fantastic option for those who don’t want to pay up for Christian McCaffrey – saving $3,000 there to spend elsewhere and have a more balanced lineup.
Bonus Pick – Antonio Gibson
Minimum Price, Maximum Value? Beware of chalk.
This year Draft Kings have updated their minimum price for running backs (now up to $4k) and that has stolen even more value from us, but there are still always super cheap startable options in Week One. This year is no different. The prices got locked in and now we are right on the cusp of football and we have much more information. Rookie Antonio Gibson of the Washington Football Team is probably the person whose situation has improved the most since the prices were set, as he has now seemingly become the RB1 of a backfield which no longer contains Adrian Peterson. The team won’t be amazing, and there is the potential for a couple of other backs to try and compete for touches, but it sounds like Gibson is the one to own and his price won’t be down at $4,000 again anytime soon. I like him in PPR, and I think he will be involved in the passing game as well as having the ability to score on the ground. The Eagles aren’t an easy matchup but Gibson’s pass catching ability will keep him involved even if Washington are losing. Be warned, however, Gibson will be outrageously popular in DK this weekend.
He’s back, he’s healthy, he’s a value.
Don’t ask me how, don’t ask me why, but Davante Adams is only $7,300 – on a scale where Michael Thomas is up at $9,000. The Green Bay wideout is back to full health coming into the new season after last year was disrupted by injury, and he will be as dominant as ever. The Vikings defense is decent but it won’t be able to slow him down. In his last outing against Minnesota he put up 27 fantasy points, and before that he put up 21 (neither included a touchdown, by the way), so don’t look at the matchup as a threat. I think Adams is going to have a great year and this might be the cheapest price he gets all season, so I’m putting him in every lineup I can this week.
Stud athlete with great matchup and touchdown upside.
The fan-favourite wide receiver rookie of 2019 is in his second season after impressing with a great debut in fantasy, DK Metcalf is now back and ready to take another step with the Seahawks. Russell ‘Mr Unliiiiiiiiiiiiiimeted’ Wilson is going to be letting it fly this year, and Metcalf has already earned a strong rapport and sense of trust with his QB. Metcalf was one of the highest targeted players in the entire league in the end zone, and his frame and athleticism make him the ideal candidate to continue commanding these valuable targets. He scored 8 touchdowns in his rookie campaign and I don’t think that is going to prove to be an unsustainable number, for as long as he has Wilson throwing him the ball. At $5,800 there is huge value to be had, and the matchup on the road in Atlanta should be great for game script – the Falcons offense will be good but the defense will be bad. I’m smashing Metcalf in every lineup this week.
Week One DJax.
Need I say any more than DeSean Jackson is playing football, fully healthy, in week one of the regular season? Week One DJax is on par with the likes of Hoodie Melo, in my book, and if you want even more of a reminder of the history of this mythical version of the Eagles receiver – he literally did it against the same team in Week One last year. He finished the matchup against Washington with 38.4 fantasy points off the back of a 154-yard 2 TD explosion. Did he leave the game injured with 0 points in Week Two? Yes, he did. But that doesn’t matter in DFS, you just need him to be good when you have him in your lineup, and this week in Washington I think he should be. He’s priced up at just $4,900, which is clearly taking his injury risk into consideration, but unless he leaves this game early, I think there is an incredibly low chance that he doesn’t pay for himself, and more, with his fantasy production.
Hardly any competition, good price.
The Chargers as a whole team are banged up, and while the headline absence is Derwin James, the receiving weapons who will be on the offensive side of the ball are limited, essentially, to just Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and tight end Hunter Henry. It is easy to forget how good Henry is, because he has spent so much time injured since he entered the league, but he has the ability worthy of making him a top 5 tight end if he can stay healthy. In a side without Mike Williams, Keenan Allen will be the best deep threat they have (while still maintaining possession duties too) and Hunter Henry will be thrust into a key role. Tyrod Taylor is a solid Quarterback and he will definitely be able to create opportunities in the passing game with his athleticism and experience. At $5,300 I would consider Henry to be about as expensive as you can go without fully committing, and I think he will be fairly low owned compared to some of the cheaper guys.
Austin Hooper 2.0?
I want to start off by saying that I don’t think Hayden Hurst is going to suddenly become Austin Hooper overnight and get targets at the rate he did, that isn’t what I expect at all. But… They have to go somewhere. In 2019, Matt Ryan sent 97 targets Hooper’s way and he had a phenomenal season, when healthy (he missed a handful of games but still had a very impressive year) averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game – which actually lead all tight ends in DK’s PPR scoring format. Hayden Hurst will be adopting this role in as much as the fact he will be a receiving tight end, and I think this will lead to a fair number of targets. Even if he only gets 70 odd targets, that would still be a significant upgrade from the 39 he got last year in Baltimore, where he was sharing the snaps with (and giving up all of the valuable redzone work to) Mark Andrews. If you give Hurst 5+ targets a week he is going to be a very good fantasy option. Some people might be scared to play Hurst against Jamal Adams, who has recently joined the Seahawks, but at a very reasonable price of $4,300 I think that Hurst will have enough opportunities to put up some points in what has the potential to be a real shootout.
The Washington Redskins have a couple of fantasy assets that are interesting, but the sticking point for the offense is Dwayne Haskins. He is not very good, and the Eagles defense spent the majority of last season seriously banged up. If they are more-healthy than we saw last year, their price of $3,600 will be pretty generous against one of the worst teams in football. If Haskins is trying to play from behind, I think he is going to struggle a lot, and that gives Philly a chance at some turnovers, and that’s what you’re looking for in a DFS defense.
Carson Wentz @ Washington – QB – $6,300
Boston Scott @ Washington – RB – $4,800 [Only if Sanders is out]
Tarik Cohen @ Detroit – RB – $4,900 [Okay anyway, but smash if Montgomery is out]
Anthony Miller @ Detroit – WR – $5,000
Emmanuel Sanders vs Tampa Bay – WR – $5,700
TJ Hockenson vs Chicago – TE – $4,200